Climate Change Impacts and Household Resilience Prospects for 2050 in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru

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April 2016
Paper author(s): 
Lykke E. Andersen
Clemens Breisinger
Luis Carlos Jemio
Daniel Mason-D’Croz
Claudia Ringler
Richard Robertson
Dorte Verner
Manfred Wiebelt
Environmental Economics

Climate change affects countries through multiple channels and sectors. The most climate-sensitive sector is agriculture, as rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns affect agricultural yields of irrigated and dryland crops (Kang et al. 2009; Mendelsohn and Dinar 2009). Countries that are more dependent on rainfed agriculture, including many in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA), are more vulnerable to a changing climate with projected large losses in their national output (Arndt et al. 2012). But even countries with a larger share of irrigated land, including many Arab countries, are projected to be hit hard by adverse, local impacts of climate change (Wiebelt et al. 2013; Wiebelt et al. 2015). Furthermore, the sum of worldwide adverse climate change effects on agriculture is expected to have strong negative implications for global food supply, trade flows, and commodity prices (Parry et al. 2004; Nelson et al. 2010). Accounting for changing global food prices is therefore an important part of the expected impact at the country level.


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