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Blog: Un período largo de tasas de interés bajas podría redefinir el sector de la industria financiera

Gaston Gelos y Jay Surti
April 21, 2017

¿Qué pasa si las economías avanzadas permanecen atascadas en un bache duradero caracterizado por un crecimiento tenue, tasas de interés bajas, poblaciones en proceso de envejecimiento y productividad estancada? Japón ofrece un ejemplo del impacto en los bancos, y nuestro análisis indica que las empresas de seguros, los fondos de pensiones y los administradores de activos también podrían estar expuestos a consecuencias de gran alcance. Cabría decir que este escenario de malestar económico ya se ha materializado; después de todo, las tasas de interés y el crecimiento económico han estado en niveles bajos desde la crisis financiera de 2008. La pregunta es si el panorama posterior a la crisis representa una desaceleración temporal del ritmo de crecimiento al que hemos estado acostumbrados desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial, o si esto es lo que de ahora en adelante va a ser normal. Es cierto que en algunas economías avanzadas los rendimientos a largo plazo han aumentado últimamente, pero lo que nos enseñó la experiencia de Japón es que no podemos estar seguros de si el escape de la trampa de escaso crecimiento y tasas de interés bajas es algo que está a punto de suceder o si va a ser duradero.

Research Review: Moral Consequences of Becoming Unemployed

Luis Miller
April 20, 2017

Understanding how becoming unemployed affects people’s preferences and values is important. According to the International Labor Organization, almost two-hundred million people were unemployed worldwide in 2015, over seventy millions of which were youth aged 15-24, an estimated 12.9 percent of the global youth population. The economic consequences of youth unemployment are severe and, in addition to the monetary costs, unemployment is associated with poor psychological and physical health.

Blog: Could Mining Countries Take Advantage of Additional Resource Revenues? Evidence from a Commodity Super-Cycle

Carmen Cifuentes and Óscar Perelló
April 19, 2017

A large amount of literature has been developed on the so-called “Resource Curse” hypothesis, which suggests that natural resource abundant countries tend to have slower growth rates than resource-poor countries (Sachs and Warner 1997, 2001). However, another branch of the literature rejects this theory and proposes that the long-run relationship between these variables is ambiguous, since it actually depends on institutional quality (Mehlum et al 2006; Tornell and Lane 1999). This line of thought argues that institutions could encourage private agents to deviate their inputs to unproductive rent-seeking activities, which might counteract the contribution of resource rents if the institutional framework is not strong enough. We should expect this appropriation process to be particularly relevant for mining commodities during the 2000’s boom, as they have been pointed out as the most susceptible to rent-seeking issues (Boschini et al 2007, 2012). This point, in addition to the fact that mining commodities seem to be the most affected product group by China’s demand shifts, which was one of the main factors stimulating the 2000’s commodity boom (Jenkins, 2011), make mining countries a particularly interesting case of study.

Working papers: Latest Research

New entries as of April 18, 2017

Blog: From floating banks to internet kiosks: these innovative projects are connecting Latin America

Bas Burger (President, BT in the Americas)
April 17, 2017

The more connected people are, the more opportunity and access they will have to continuous learning, helping them develop the skills needed to be more productive, happier and better off. Being connected is good for people, and it’s good for the economy. Young children in many parts of the world grow up surrounded by technology. They can often scroll before they can walk. Their world is always connected. At their fingertips is a world that opens up opportunities – education, health, jobs and a sense of community. But two-thirds of people living in Latin America and the Caribbean have no access to mobile broadband, either through a lack of coverage, cost or skills. But there are innovative ways to bridge that gap in access. From banks on boats to lucky trucks and public service kiosks, here are some of the ways people across Latin America are being empowered to build successful, sustainable communities for the future.

Blog: Rethinking Taxation to Protect Savings

Carola Pessino and Eduardo Cavallo
April 14, 2017

Taxation and savings are inextricably linked. While taxation puts more money in the government’s hands, it also decreases private savings by leaving people and firms with less income to save, invest, and grow the economy. Despite this clear relationship, the negative impact of taxation on private savings is often the blind spot when policymakers tackle tax reform in Latin America and the Caribbean. Policymakers may consider whether a new tax is progressive or regressive. They may assess how much revenue the tax can raise and whether it might affect certain sectors of the economy over others. But they tend to overlook its impact on savings.

Research Review: Land titling deregularization

Sebastián Galiani
April 13, 2017

The literature on economic development underscores the significance of well-defined property rights. Property rights help people to accrue the benefits of their own productive efforts. In fact, an extensive body of empirical literature confirms that land titling gives rise to a wide range of positive effects, including significant increases in property value, household investment and agricultural productivity, among others.

Blog: It’s time for a new era of China-Latin America business relations

Angel Melguizo (Chief Economist, Latin American Unit, OECD Development Centre)
April 12, 2017

Since the start of the new millennium, China has become one of Latin America’s key trading partners. In fact, it is the most important partner for Brazil, Chile and Peru. Trade between China and Latin America has multiplied 22 times since 2000, a stark contrast to Latin American trade with the United States and Europe, which merely doubled in the same time period. Today, the China-Latin America relationship is taking on new dimensions, well beyond trade. It now encompasses finance (foreign direct investment and loans) and political co-operation. In 2016 alone, governments from the region received $21 billion in loans from Chinese policy banks.

Working papers: Latest Research

New entries as of April 11, 2017

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